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A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has something to gain from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."